The main reason the forecasting techniques presented in this book are not up to predictive analytics snuff is because they are not validated and may be based on a single sample. The math is fine, but I have purposely not brought you through the steps to create a robust forecast model and then to validate the model so you can understand its precision and usefulness. For our objectives, which are very general and imprecise, the increased precision and complexity are not necessary. If you desire more precision, a number of technical papers, books, and some training opportunities are available.11

Here's the situation: Users are angry, very angry. The Oracle Database 10g Release 2 online system residing on a single four-CPU core Linux server is taking much too long when simply querying for basic information, like a customer. But it's not just one, two, or three queries-it's the entire system. You have been assigned to diagnose the system, recommend solutions, and clearly explain the solutions, including reasonable expectations for their impact on performance.

The worksheets shown in the figures in the remainder of this chapter are all contained within a single Microsoft Excel workbook, the firefighting diagnostic template workbook.12 Only the yellow cells require input. If you enter information into a cell that isn't shaded yellow, you are typing over a formula! Data entered in one of the worksheets may be referenced in another worksheet. For example, the Oracle CPU consumption shown in the Oracle-focused worksheet (Figure 9-21) is referenced in the operating system CPU analysis worksheet (Figure 9-22). All the data-entry fields have been previously discussed. If you need more information about their source, please review the appropriate section in this book.